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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

The IMF expects Portugal to return to bond markets in 2013. Sure, Portugal isn’t Greece and an outright default isn’t on the cards. Not yet.
But there are enough reasons why Portugal will find it hard to return to the markets, and might need a second bailout.

Austerity: The most obvious reason is lack of growth. The Portuguese government is …

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USD_Eyes_Key_Trendline_Resistance-_AUD_Posts_Largest_Decline_in_2012_body_Picture_4.png, USD Eyes Key Trendline Resistance- AUD Posts Largest Decline in 2012
USD_Eyes_Key_Trendline_Resistance-_AUD_Posts_Largest_Decline_in_2012_body_Picture_3.png, USD Eyes Key Trendline Resistance- AUD Posts Largest Decline in 2012
The greenback was markedly stronger at the close of North American trade with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing 0.52% on the session after moving a full 114% of its daily average true range. Ongoing concerns regarding a slowdown in China and the Greek debt saga has continued to weigh on broader market sentiment with equity markets …

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Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 03/07/2012 20:00 GMT, 15:00 EST
Primary Pair Impact: NZDUSD
Expected: 2.50%
Previous: 2.50%
DailyFX Forecast: 2.50%
Why Is This Event Important:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, but the statement accompanying the rate …

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With the market finally pulling back and giving the market participants the pullback they have been begging for it might be time to focus on some PEAD stocks: Post Earnings Announcement Drift; “Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) is the tendency for a stock’s cumulative abnormal returns to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for several weeks (even several months)…

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Since the beginning of the current bull market – which bottomed at 666.79 exactly three years ago today – I have periodically been posting a table of the most significant pullbacks in the S&P 500 index since that March 2009 bottom. For the record, the current 2.6% decline over four days is barely enough to get it to qualify as…

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DJ FXCM Dollar Index

Index Last High Low Daily Change (%) Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index 9928.76 9933.77 9874.79 0.46 100.16%

USD_Index_To_Retrace_2011_Decline_Dollar-Yen_Searches_For_Support__body_ScreenShot029.png, USD Index To Retrace 2011 Decline, Dollar-Yen Searches For Support
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.37 percent higher from the open after moving 100 percent if its average true range, and the rebound from 9,738 may gather pace over the coming days …

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Stocks have been eerily quiet for the first ten weeks of 2012, with only four 1% moves in the SPX so far – and all of those coming to the upside.
It just so happens that the CBOE’s launch of futures and options on the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEEM) coincided with this period of languid volatility, which…

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Guest_Commentary_MarketVisionTV_Time_to_Buy_Cable_as_Market_Goes_Bearish_body_gbp603.png, Guest Commentary: MarketVisionTV - Time to Buy Cable as Market Goes Bearish?!
Our view that the rally to 1.5995 was part of a larger corrective consolidation (a B wave high) has increased in probability today with renewed weakness in a clear 5 wave decline from 1.5995. Given the probability of a B wave high, all we need is a 5 wave decline to end a possible C leg and (however unlikely it …

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Fundamental Headlines
- Goldman’s Secret Greece Loan Reveals Sinners – Bloomberg
- Private Investors of Greek Debt to Join Swap – Bloomberg
- Bondholder Group Sees 1 Trillion Euro Greek Default Risk – Reuters
- China Foothold in U.S. Energy – WSJ
- U.S., Israel Pull Closer on Iran – WSJ
European Session Summary
Higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets …

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Talking Points

Euro: Greece Default To Exceed EUR 1T, Troika Prepares For Involuntary Restructuring
British Pound: Searches For Support After Carving Top Below 1.6000
U.S. Dollar: Index Advances To Fresh Monthly High As Flight To Safety Picks Up

Euro: Greece Default To Exceed EUR 1T, Troika Prepares For Involuntary Restructuring
The Euro tumbled to an overnight low of 1.3112 as …

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Nilus Mattive

A lot of investors tell me they’re frustrated by all the recent stock market strength. Why? Because they got caught sitting on the sidelines and now feel as though it’s too late to buy in.
While I’ll be the first person to admit that many companies are no longer the screaming buys they used to be, I do want you

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Talking Points

Crude Oil, Copper Under Pressure as Global Slowdown Fears Intensify
Gold and Silver Down as US Dollar Rides Safe Haven Demand Higher

Commodity prices continue to track lower – mirroring the trading dynamic we discussed yesterday – as the return of global economic slowdown fears drives risk aversion across financial markets. Growth-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are …

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