Well we were right on the base, the market move which wasn’t just a bounce,m but the best 3-day move in the market the entirety of 2013 while everyone was as bearish as could be. We even got the specific catalyst that would spark the market correct, but this was a small opportunity, on a scale of 1-10, maybe a 3. I believe before this move is over we’l have about a 5 and the next opportunity that this move sets up (have you noticed how one move in the market sets up the next?) will likely be a 10, the kind of move that we may only see once in a lifetime.
I’ll be addressing the week behind us because the market doesn’t do anything randomly, random events sometimes effect the market such as the large banking sector liquidity CRISIS in China this week that seems to be the reason gold and silver were slapped around when they were otherwise ready to rally. Just look at the Precious Metals right on the Chinese market open, the Chinese banks that can’t find any liquidity just like the US financial crisis that brought down Lehman, a company around nearly a century, are selling assets to raise capital and one of their largest holdings at a gain is gold and silver. If they don’t raise liquidity, they could be the next Lehman and the normal channels (other banks on overnight loans) are shut down, just like Lehman because in an opaque market such as the US financial system in 2008, the counter-party risk was too large, in other words you didn’t know if the bank you were lending to was a Lehman or not. Now just imagine how much more opaque China is, so yes, sometimes there are surprise events that the market has to discount on the spot as they were not anticipated by the market.
The week behind will lead to the week ahead and what to expect.
I’ll address the amazing call (amazing not because it was right, but because it was true, it actually happened) of the F_E_D somehow being the catalyst and an amazing (6) F_E_D speakers this week, each with their own job to do to control the market; the first 3 created the strong 3-day rally, the 4th and 5th created the draw-down (semi-pullback today as we expected yesterday) which could have been for several reasons from the op-ex pin to creating an actual pullback.
The final speaker of the week gave the market the same message the first three F_E_D speakers gave the market.
Can you honestly say you think this was coincidence? The fact we had so many F_E_D speakers, the fact that the 3 Hawks all came out with the same message which was extremely uncharacteristic and on the day they needed the market to at least consolidate for at least an op-ex pin (there were two speakers right in time for the market to do what was needed today-again both sharing the same message and one of them was from earlier in the week now giving the opposite message). Clearly the number of speakers, the clusters they were in and timing and messages they carried at the time was what was needed, when something else was needed as we saw the underlying trade YESTERDAY suggesting at minimum an op-ex pin and more likely a pullback to come, what exactly are the chances that we have two additional speakers (one of which was almost contradicting himself from earlier statements in the week) and they were right in time (just before the market open) to create the price move needed?
Do you believe in coincidences like this in the market?
Look at it this way, you know we were already expecting a strong move to the upside well before the start of this week (and I mean even stronger than the strongest 3-day rally in all of 2013 that we saw this week), the signals were already in, we just needed some catalyst to serve as a spark and to give Financial media an excuse to give the masses who want to understand the market rather than make money in it.
When the market was set up (the right size base and accumulation were in place) for a move to the upside at the start of the new week, we just so happen to have 3 F_E_D speakers to give the market the only message it cares about right now, and to make it more believable, they use 3 of the biggest hawks who have opposed the VERY message they delivered.
And as you know we had signals yesterday that suggested the market at least holds for an Options Expiration pin, if not a decent pullback and more likely BOTH….
Right after ES (The S&P E-mini Futures) makes the high for the week and between 15 and 90 minutes before the market opens, we have a cluster of 2 F_E_D speakers just before the open to make sure the above happens, or in more detail…
This is overnight trade with ES building on Thursday’s close and moving ES to an overnight (3 a.m.) high of the week, setting the market up for a 4th day of gains, but we already knew that couldn’t happen from the 3C signals Thursday…
So at 8 a.m. and 9:15 before the market opens, two F_E_D speakers (one who already spoke earlier in the week to pump the market) give the opposite message from earlier in the week so the market looks like this in to the open…
What are the chances that we have 6 speakers, 3 who are known hawks come and say exactly what the market needed to hear, but only after the 4-day base we predicted last week was built and the 3C accumulation was in place and then we see distribution signals Thursday and futures make a new high for the week overnight to add to the already record 3-day move for the year, which we already knew Thursday couldn’t be allowed to happen as distribution was already set in motion. So what are the chances that those two speakers contradict what the other three said earlier in the week (AGAIN WITH ONE OF THEM CONTRADICTING HIS OWN MESSAGE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK) to once again give the market EXACTLY what it needed?
Coincidence? Coincidence that I could have predicted it over the weekend?
You can make up your own minds, but from the way I’ve seen mini market cycles set up days and weeks in advance and how they lead to larger cycles that have been set up months in advance take place and how we were able to use that information to make winning trades that placed us in the top 1/10th of 1 % of all portfolios, I can’t imagine that is coincidence.
So this weekend, I’ll show you the signs and signals in place for our next round of, “Random Market Walk”.