Head Trader at SchoolofTrade.com. Motivator, Trader, Fund Manager and Educator. Joseph focuses on intra-day trading of crude oil, E-mini Russell, Gold, and Euro and his network of traders covers all corners of the industry.
First, trading at the PHOD suggests the buyers see value in prices above the highsfrom yesterday. We don’t always know WHY these buyers are pushing higher, but the fact of the matter is the PHOD is a clear signal that the market sentiment is bullish this morning. If we break and close above the PHOD on the 5m chart we will consider buying pullbacks up to a profit-target at 110.07.
We will also keep a close eye on the fake-out-breakout around the PHOD. With today’s Non-Farm Payroll news at 830am EST we may see a sharp price-reversal after that news is released and we may be selling short back below the PHOD with a profit-target at the trend-line support and a runner at the PLOD of 107.13.
Second, we see a narrow trading-range coming out of London, which is not very typical, and it makes us think about what the markets may be ‘waiting for’ this morning ahead of the opening-bell. We typically see a $1.00 trading-range from London and this morning we have less than $0.75 of a move which suggests the markets are waiting on something later this morning. We can assume the Non-Farm Payroll news report coming out later this morning is what people are waiting for.
Our day trading plan this morning will be to trade with the current bullish trend, buying with the Wave pattern on the way up to 110.07 and beyond.
Crude Oil PIT Session Levels
Beware, today is a day that many professional traders watch from the sidelines. Similar to an FOMC Day, or OPEX-Friday, today is going to be much different price-action than we normally see.
It’s difficult to predict where we are going ahead of this Non-Farm Payroll news at 8:30am EST, but one thing is for certain, we must stay patient to wait for this news to be released and then ‘digested’ by the market before we go entering into trades.
Marty’s Crude Oil PIT Direction
The most important thing to remember this morning is to wait for at least 10-minutes after the news is released to let the market make ‘sense’ of the report. Don’t rush into the markets today, wait for the clear new short-term trend after 8:30am EST and trade in that direction.