The real problem for Caterpillar is that China is no longer going to build a new city every month, the commodity super cycles are over for a long time given the global debt overhang, and don`t expect Trump Infrastructure Projects to save the day for CAT, as the United States has its own debt problems to worry about which is unsustainable even at these levels.
We basically have gone from 8 Trillion to 20 Trillion in Government Debt since 2008, and it is the rate of change of this debt spending that is the real elephant in the room, and we are just coming up on the entitlement`s impact curve on our government debt obligations.
I feel for Trump because he has inherited a boxed in economic situation here, he actually wants to stimulate the economy through growth projects; but the previous wars, financial crisis, bailouts, and unwise and inefficient spending programs have made borrowing anymore money at these levels impossible, and Congress knows this fact!
They may try to go down this borrow and spending road but it will backfire bigtime on the Republicans. By my calculation the Democrats are going to benefit immensely from the fact that the shit is going to hit the fan during the Trump presidency and Republican controlled Congress from past bad governmental practices of what I call “Can-Kicking” and “Short Termism.”
Trump has no hope of avoiding a recession, and things are going to get quite nasty with an exploding Debt problem, a Central Bank out of Bullets, a Crashing Financial Market, and the end of the current business cycle. We borrowed a lot from the future with short term solutions to problems we faced, and now it is time to pay the Debt Piper!