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Elliot Wave

Our basic counts haven’t changed. The premise is that cycle wave b of supercycle wave (a) has topped and we are in the beginning stages of cycle wave c down. This wave count is based solidly in EW theory. The pattern since 2009 counts best as a “three” pattern nearly equally divided in both price and time. This would indicate…

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SPX weekly is approaching an important lower channel line. It would be a good place for yet another bounce if that’s the case.
However, if wave (ii) has ended in a downward flat, we are in wave (iii) down which implies the market is getting near a “point of recognition”.
Time and long-term negative trending social mood has gotten us…

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Weekly:
Primary squiggle count:

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Top squiggle counts:
Today’s Investor’s Intelligence Bull?bear ratio via Sentiment Trader:
The bears have scattered to the wind. Incredible considering the real dangers facing the market due to social mood.
US dollar public sentiment. This survey was dated 1 October. 
Dollar is therefore in excellent position to rally when sentiment hits extreme which it is close to being. Technically, the …

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Possible squiggle count implying the top is in.

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We don;t have a very good squiggle count and there does not seem to be a good impulsive down on anything.  New all time highs on the Russell 2000 and recovery high on the NASDAQ composite. The market is fractured at the moment as a result. Its interesting that the banking index BKX seems to be leading the way lower.…

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Its a very fractured market at the moment.
On the squiggle scale, the decline looks non-impulsive for now which would characterize the decline as corrective. However support was broken, so we’ll see what tomorrow brings. If its a developing impulse down, then a third wave of hard selling would be the next wave that is due.  
Monthly picture:

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Still holding support for now. Adjusted the squiggle count.

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There is a prominent short-term support neckline that has developed in the Wilshire5000. It has nearly 6 touch points so likely the market deems it important upper level support. If the neckline holds, we will probably get a very nice price rebound. If the neckline breaks, selling should intensify and the price decline of the past 5 days should, as…

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There is a continuing heavy bias in the options markets toward more upside. Both the CPCE and CPC are registering significant lows in the 5 day moving average.
Possible squiggle count shows a very decent 5 wave pattern down on both the Wilshire5000 and SPX (not shown)
Again the big picture weekly SPX. This is the best EW count that…

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REASONS A TOP MAY HAVE OCCURRED (See SPX weekly) 1. Considering March 9th, 2009 was a cycle wave low, September 10th of this month kicked off the 55 month of rally.  55 is of course a Fibonacci number.  The 55th month of rally ends October 9th.  The market topped at a full moon and near the fall equinox. 2. Wave…

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