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John Thomas – Free Daily Commentary

I think the stock market is in the process of putting in an intermediate top. We are getting perilously close to the 1,360 target I predicted in my best case scenario last October. In fact, we are already at the yearend targets put out by the majority of market strategists only a month ago. It kind of makes the next…

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I have not suddenly fallen in love with the garlic eaters and the beer drinkers, and they certainly are not about to kiss and make up. But I have to respect the harsh judgment of the market. The collapse of the Euro has not been cancelled, just postponed. Immediately after I sold the Euro short around $1.29 against the dollar…

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The Burning of Atlanta?

by John Thomas on February 2, 2012

in Featured, Stocks

Yesterday, S&P Case Shiller announced the grim tidings once again that the collapse of the American residential real estate market is continuing. Overall, the national average fell by 1.3% in November compared to October, and is now down 33% from its 2006 high. Seasonally adjusted, the index is at a nine year low. Some 19 of 20 cities showed declines.…

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The street is chattering today over the prospect of an enormous payday with the imminent IPO for the social media company, Facebook. Price talk is valuing the company as high as $100 billion, making it the largest such floatation in history. Could the mega deal spell the end of the current bull market? Look at it this way. That is…

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When I wake up at 4:30 am each morning to check the overnight markets and review the opening salvo of incoming emails, I often have trouble focusing in my groggy state. So I had to blink twice when the first message in my inbox politely inquired if I had time to meet the Secretary of the Treasury in Palo Alto…

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Every once in a while I run into a natural born trader, someone who crawls out of the crib quoting options spreads, price earnings multiples, and book values. His first spoken word was “Sell!” While other kids were practicing their ABC’s, Tim was pouring through prospectii. During his college years, Tim skipped classes and turned a $12,415 Bar Mitzvah gift…

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I am throwing in the towel on the (TBT) ETF, my 200% leveraged bet that Treasury bonds will fall. I am doing this partly to clear out the dogs from my portfolio so I can start the New Year with a 100% cash position. But I am also bailing because the short term fundamentals point to continued weakness in the…

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The Euro hit my yearend target today after a two cent plunge sent it down to the $1.29 handle. You can thank German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who in the strongest possible terms, said there was no way she would consent to an increase in the size of the European bailout package. It didn’t help that in the Federal Reserve comments…

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I have to tell you that I am not feeling the love from my silver position. I hung on faithfully for a month while the (SLV) churned around the 50 day moving average, building a base for a possible upside breakout. It was not to be. With another “RISK OFF” day on our plate this morning it is clearly time…

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Have you ever wanted to spend your summers basking in the sunlight at your mountain top Tuscan villa, surveying the manicured vineyards which produce your own estate bottled wine? Are you drawn by the cachet of claiming George Clooney as a celebrity neighbor on the model strewn shores of Lake Como? How about a luxury apartment that is walking distance…

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Take a look at the charts below, and you will see what prompted me to knock out some shorts on the S&P 500 (SPY) on Friday. The longer the current trading range in the index works, the more traders pile into it, confining it to an ever narrowing range. I am even hearing that fundamental managers who normally shun charts…

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Much of the fury in yesterday’s nearly 500 point “melt up” in the Dow was generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts. Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments, and the death spiral in sovereign bonds, many managers were running a maximum short position at the Monday opening, and for the umpteenth time, were forced…

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